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Home My WebLink About03. Presentation by demographer re mapping for by-division elections Page 1 of 17 Item 3. CENTRALSAN SANITARYjdf A- hom CENTRAL CONTRA COSTA , . September 21, 2020 TO: HONORABLE BOARD OF DIRECTORS FROM: JUSTIN LEVITT, NATIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS CORPORATION REVIEWED BY: KENTON L. ALM, ESQ., DISTRICT COUNSEL ROGER S. BAILEY GENERAL MANAGER SUBJECT: RECEIVE PRESENTATION BY DEMOGRAPHER ON THE TRANSITION PROCESS FROM AN AT-LARGE TOA DIVISION-BASED ELECTION SYSTEMAND RECEIVE INPUT FROM THE COMMUNITY REGARDING BOUNDARIES AND COMPOSITION OF DIVISIONS TO BE ESTABLISHED FOR DIVISION-BASED ELECTIONS PURSUANT TO ELECTIONS CODE SECTION 10010 Attached is the presentation to be given at the meeting. ATTACHMENTS: 1. Presentation September 21, 2020 Special Board Meeting Agenda Packet- Page 4 of 21 d 1` .fes -` � `4.V -,. ,`� '• � �- f r NDC 1 -- 7: National Demographics Corporation , v a Central Contra Costa Sanitary District Introduction to Creation of Electoral Divisions SeptemTber 3 an 21- 1, 2020, cial Board Meeting Agenda Packet- Page 5 of 21 NDCElection Systems National Demographics Corporation i. "At Large" 2. "From Division" or "Residence" Divisions 3. "By Division" The California Voting Rights Act was written to specifically encourage by-division elections. September 3 a§gRtIpTPffl21, 2020 Special Board Meeting Agenda Packet- Page 6 of 21 NDC California Voting Rights Act CVRA National Demographics Corporation ❑ Under the Federal Voting Rights Act (passed in 1965), a jurisdiction must fail four factual tests before it is in violation of the law. ❑ The California VRA makes it significantly easier for plaintiffs whose ability to elect has been impaired to force jurisdictions into "by-district" election systems by downplaying two of the US Supreme Court Gin gles tests: Does the protected class vote as a bloc? Do the voters who are not in the protected class vote in a bloc to defeat the preferred candidates of the protected class? ❑ When a plaintiff's ability to elect has been impaired, liability is heavily dependent on racially polarized voting September 3 ati(y Rf 21, 2020 Special Board Meeting Agenda Packet- Page 7 of 21 NDC CVRA Impact National Demographics Corporation R" = ❑ Switched (or in the process of switching) ❑ Key settlements: as a result of CVRA: o Palmdale: $4.7 million At least 215 school districts L- Modesto: $3 million 34 Community College Districts o Highland: $1.3 million 126 cities o Anaheim: $1.1 million 1 County Board of Supervisors o Whittier: $1 million 35 water and other special districts. o Santa Barbara: $600,000 ❑ Cases So Far: o Tulare Hospital: $500,000 o Palmdale, Santa Clara and Santa Monica went to 0 Camarillo: $233,000 trial on the merits. Palmdale and Santa Clara lost. o Compton Unified: $200,000 Santa Monica lost at trial, won on appeal, and is p Madera Unified: about $170,000 awaiting State Supreme Court action. 13 o Modesto and Palmdale each spent about $1.8 Hanford Joint Union Schools: $118,000 million on their defense (in addition to the o Merced City: $42,000 attorney fee awards in those cases). Santa Monica An estimated $16 million in total has spent an estimated $8 to $10 million so far. settlements and court awards so far. Septembers-fRWR'T.1 1060 Special Board Meeting Agenda Packet- Page 8 of 21 NDCDistricting Process National Demographics Corporation Description RoI— Au20 Board adopted "Resolution of Intent" to move to by-area maps Two Initial Hearings Held prior to release of draft maps. Education and to solicit input on September 3 and 21 the communities in the District. Deadline for public draft Public can submit draft maps for NDC processing and posting map submissions Oct. 1 Post draft maps on website Maps and the potential sequence of elections must be posted at least Oct. 8 7 days prior to 3rd hearing. Two hearings on draft maps Two meetings to discuss and revise the draft maps and to discuss the Oct. 15 and Nov. 5 election sequence. Map adoption Map adopted via resolution. Tentatively Nov. 9 or 10 Final map must be posted at least 7 days prior to adoption. Final Deadline 90-day deadline to adopt a leap Nov. 18 September 3 a§gRtpTPK21, 2020 Special Board Meeting Agenda Packet- Page 9 of 21 NDC Districting Rules National Demographics Corporation Federal ❑ Equal Population ❑ Communities of interest ❑ Federal Voting Rights Act ❑ Compact ❑ No Racial Gerrymandering ❑ Contiguous ❑ Visible (Natural & man-made) boundaries ❑ Respect voters' choices / avoid head to head contests ❑ Plann ed fu tune growth September 3 a§gRt] TTZf-�21, 2020 Special Board Meeting Agenda Packet- Page 10 of 21 Category Field Count Pct Category Field Count Pct Total Pop 330,336 ACS Pop. Est. Total 353,314 Hisp 27,323 8% aZe0-19 87,067 25% NDC Total Pop NH White 228,880 69% Age age20-60 177,750 50% NH Black 6,887 2% a e60 lus 88,497 25% National Demographies corporation Asian-American 61,792 19% immigrants 76,787 22% Total 248,840 Immigration naturalized 48,572 63% Citizen Voting Hisp 19,758 8% english 251,496 75% o 0 Age Pop NH White 176,979 71/o Language spoken at spanish 13,894 /o 4 Demographic NH Black 5,143 20/( home asian-lang 37,546 11% Summar Asian/PacIsl. 44,281 18% other lang 32,538 10% Total 223,649 Language Fluency Speaks Eng. Less 25,421 8% than Very Well" Latino est. 15,392 7% hs-grad _ 78'049 31% Spanish-Surnamed 13,827 6% bachelor 96,968 39% Each of the five Voter Registration o those age 25+)Education (among o (Nov 2018) Asian-Surnamed 22,722 10/o raduatede ree 68,127 27/o election divisions Filipino-Surnamed 2,696 1% Child in Household child-underl8 43,775 32% must contain about NH White est. 179,448 80% Pct of Pop.Age employed 170,868 60% 66,067 residents. NH Black 4,448 2% income 0-25k 11,229 8% Total 1663582 income 25-50k 13,342 10% Latino est. 10,536 6% Household Income income 50-75k 14,284 11% Voter Turnout Spanish-Surnamed 9,465 6% income 75-200k 54,807 41% (Nov 2018) Asian-Surnamed 14,969 9% income 200k-plus 41,383 31% Fili ino-Surnamed 1,834 1% single family 102,810 73% NH White est. 136,656 82% multi-family 37,885 27% NH Black 3,220 2% Housing Stats rented 38,327 28% Total 181,773 owned 96,718 72% Latino est. 11,714 6% - Total population data from the 2010 Decennial Census.Surname-based Voter Voter Turnout Spanish-Surnamed 10,523 6% Registration and Turnout data from the California Statewide Database.Latino voter - - Asian-Surnamed 15,856 9% registration and turnout data are Spanish-surname counts adjusted using Census (Nov 2016) - - Population Department undercount estimates.NH White and NH Black registration Filipino-Surnamed 2,088 1% and turnout counts estimated by NDC.Citizen Voting Age Population,Age, ta `XJ ° Immigration,and other demographics from the 2014-2018 American Community September 3 a§gRT 21, 202 Special Board Me tingN er A'fSA'6t- ag 7 1 81/o Survey and Special Tabulation 5-year data. NH Black est. 3,281 2% NDC Latino Population National Demographics Corporation La tlnos are particularly, T Latino% of CVAP concentrated only In =0%to 25% the Districtportion of the triangle on the M25%to 35% p g 35%to 50/0 east side of I-680 between Highways 4 and 50%to 65% p Concord 65%to 75% 242 75%to 2 DO% No Population Plcasa Hill ,7 Note: only 4 people in LaLvio'Y�of CV®P the red Census Block. n nzs 50. 65% " _ Lafa•e a .. - •�' _ No 1'opnla[on ell I } 1�'JfiYl �1 . •"t . - Sm Bamvn September 3 a§gRt1pTPffl21, 2020 Special Board Meeting Agenda Packet- Page 12 of 21 � $20 6 CALIPER NDCAsian-American Population National Demographics Corporation Aslan Am erl cans are particularly Asn-Amer. % of CVAP r 0°/a to 250/6 concentrated In the southern part ' 25%to35% 35%to 50% of the District, mainly In San , _� 50%to 65% Concord 65%to 75% Ram on. 75%to 10011/6 L No Population r� I°Ic•�:an[!fill }LL Walnut(:rrc3: Lafayette drinda M u 1 �1 �� 11:3r.}•Illi _ o - Sat•,Ran:on September 3 a§gRtIpTPffl21, 2020 Special Board Meeting Agenda Packet- Page 13 of 21 � .2u 16 CRL IPE R NDCAfrican-American Population National Demographics Corporation A African Americans are not particularly v Slack°/o of CVAP - 0%to 25% con cen tra ted In any one part of the r 25%to 35% 35%to 58°/o District. 1? 50%to 65% 65°/o to 75°/0 75%to 100% No Population `� Plcasant dill ' Li'.1-1 Cr—k Lafayrur Orinda sa Mn raa September 3 a§gRtIpTPffl21, 2020 Special Board Meeting Agenda Packet- Page 14 of 21 #2016 CAL IPE R NDCDefining Communities of Interest National Demographics Corporation 1St Question: what is your neighborhood or community of interest? A Community of Interest is generally defined as a neighborhood or community of shared interests, views, problems, or characteristics. Possible community feature/boundary definitions include: ❑ Cities, School Districts, or School Attendance Areas ❑ Natural neighborhood dividing lines, such as highway or major roads, rivers, canals, and/or hills ❑ Areas around parks and other neighborhood landmarks ❑ Common issues, neighborhood activities, or legislative/election concerns ❑ Shared demographic characteristics Such as similar levels of income, education, or linguistic isolation 2nd Question: Does a Community of Interest want to be united in one division, or to be divided to have a voice in multiple elections? September 3 atiyRf 21, 2020 Special Board Meeting Agenda Packet- Page 15 of 21 NDC Sam le Com act Mapsp p National Demographics Corporation , Glendale Areas- Unified _ I r _ 2 4 GUSD Facilities �`l a-_ Coatinuauan 1 lndep.(2) A High(4) `7�� - I tis✓`-.>7 Hiddte(4) 011ier 12 /u I - I . I— — LJI J 4� _ - -. . I I�. I 1 - l �rr Glendora Unified ! �E D Y Examples of highly compact maps, with nooks and jogs driven only by equal population requirements. September 3 a§gRtIpTPffl21, 2020 Special Board Meeting Agenda Packet- Page 16 of 21 i�avnnal nrinnyratl�i�s e�q,�>Ad��,..l,�tr 2a.2nln NDC Sample MMaps National Demographics Corporation til ? a Redwood 'I City School + o District - �— i 9 2- •� I� 9 s a _ -e J ji sR `�. paka Central Unified T6 Examples of maps where a desire to ensure the Board members represented multiple school attendance areas (to avoid Balkanizing the District), led to policy-driven but non- com � September 3 a � t� §20 Special Board Meeting Agenda Packet- Page 17 of 21 NDC Cities and Places in the District National Demographics Corporation ai V1.14 HiA 2rtinez r3 cGncord pney, Pkasan I HiColic AMW Pleasant Hilf ,ft�liesa .c La Ca} Walnut Cr Contra Costa ntre Orinda ............... Lafayette Walnut Cry arana an u61: DanAi� Orinda 0 San Rqmon Diablo ................ Danville Blackhawk cal"MI) B ,a ck la wk San Ramon §gRt1pTPg 21, 2020 Special Board Meeting Agenda Packet- Page 18 of 21 September 3 a 02016 CALIPER Public Hearing ,..,r�.•'M7arrinc.. _ Pacheco.! '� -. Concnxd - NDC and Discussion PLeasanc HilF National Demographics Corporation C—"Caffa• i. What is your neighborhood or V f)flada "community of interest"? Moia a .......... .Ofabla"-. • _ Danville ��•"' 6lackhawk� 2. Do you prefer your community be kept l Camine together in one division or have multiple ' S representatives? 3. What are other communities of interest in the District that should be considered 1'Icasanl H i when drafting maps? Lnr y�ta�_ WaLnul c clx�„la r�nfaga nanviilr V ) snv Fcs,,,on September 3 a§gRtIpTPy21, 2020 Special Board Meeting Agenda Packet- Page 19 of 21 1 NDC Timeline Review National Demographics Corporation Description KoI— lug. 20 Board adopted "Resolution of Intent" to move to by-area maps Two Initial Hearings Held prior to release of draft maps. Education and to solicit input on September 3 and 21 the communities in the District. Deadline for public draft Public can submit draft maps for NDC processing and posting map submissions Oct. 1 Post draft maps on website Maps and the potential sequence of elections must be posted at least Oct. 7 7 days prior to 3rd hearing. Two hearings on draft maps Two meetings to discuss and revise the draft maps and to discuss the Oct. 14 and Nov. 4 election sequence. Map adoption Map adopted via resolution. Nov. 9 Final map must be posted at least 7 days prior to adoption. Final Deadline 90-day deadline to adopt a mai Nov. 18 September 3 a§gRtpTPK21, 2020 Special Board Meeting Agenda Packet- Page 20 of 21