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Home My WebLink About02. (Handout) Dr. David Senn's Presentation Suisun - DeltaModeling tem 2- (Handout)t) November 2012 Zhenlin Zhang, Rusty Holleman, Emma Nuss, David Senn San Francisco Bay Nutrient Management Strategy sfbaynutrients.sfei.org � � • -,.j. _ is '�' ''- _ �'- Y~ anrcisco Estuary Institute ,a-.•�ieiF�af. �� k:.a r� _ _ 40_ rt.9R� Does SFB have nutrient problems? ? ? - now? E - future? N N 0 U W How can impacts be mitigated or prevented? Nutrients (N,P) - $5-10bill question • Large algae blooms • Low DO meq. � �� -' _ • Harmful algae, toxins j„ �, u `4 4 v i �f. 3.. Bay-wide Loads Historically: Resistant to classic eutrophication symptoms kg N 50,000 Recently: Evidence of changing 65% \�wTO,000 response to nutrients 20% Delta/Ag 15% Stormwater rr e.g., Cloern et al., 2007, 2010; SFEI 2014 Does SFB have nutrient problems? ? ? - now? E - future? N N 0 U W How can impacts be mitigated or prevented? Nutrients (N,P) - $5-10bill question • Large algae blooms • Low DO __ ' • Harmful algae, toxins SFB doesn't use most of its nutrients 1 . High turbidity Historically: Resistant to classic eutrophication symptoms 2. Strong tidal mixing "L\ Recently: Evidence of changing response to nutrients 3. Filter-feeding clams e.g., Cloern et al., 2007, 2010; SFEI 2014 Suisun Modeling-Related Topics Nutrients y l Nutrient sources to Suisun Bay (space, time) ? Transport, Cycling, Concentrations • important processes ? • 'assimilative capacity' ? Ecosystem responses, major factors... Phytoplankton production ? • Light • Nutrients • Grazers Harmful Algae, Toxins ? Future scenarios: Nutrients and Responses Effects of management decisions ? Changes to underlying factors Dissolved Inorganic N Loads to Suisun Bay (kg/day, monthly averages 2007-2011 ) . 1 From Delta NO3 From Delta NH3 JPOTW No3 POTW NH3 O N D J F M A M J J A S SFEI (2014, 2015) *Local stormwater loads not included, but considered to be relatively small NMS Modeling Focus Areas Suisun/Delta An $800k Delta RIVIP WB Coastal Exchange; 4 .,, • $400k SacReg Scenarios And Risk $200k DSP Central San 0 Coe Modeling - LSB sloughs, creeks Model Development and Application Management Environmental Applications Scenarios Scenarios Water Quality Hydrodynamics Transport & Mixing Physics Model Development Depth (m NAVD88) R Domain -110to -10 I i 1 t 1 • to 2 10 vertical layers 4 � 75000 cells i Higher • • - in theDelta and Suisun Bay Ila Collaboration with USGS and Deltares ,�� •ten ' (Martyr et al. 2017) �� a _. Model Development and Application Management Environmental Applications Scenarios Scenarios 1 Phyto: ' community Sediment Flux Turbidity 11 Dissolved "' MintLight Field � oxy�n Denitrif. � water Quality Grazers Model Phyto: biomass I Studies 1 I ' 4 � 1 ■ Current Hydrodynamics Physics work Transport & Mixing ' Model 1 ' Development ` — — — — now NO3 NH4 4 6 8 10 lim N Yr 7 NO32011-03-18 NH4 0 30 20040 5D 0 2 4 b 10 M N F, ` What sources contribute these nutrients? i } [draft] Regional San DIN Loads (kg d-1): NH4 or WWTP Upgrade (by 2021): NH4 _ Current:NH4 15000 NO3 -14,000 kg d-1 - NH4 NO3 - DIN load: 70% 10000 _ Load change will be substantial 5000 relative to overall loads to the Delta Future: NO3 3,500 kg d-1 0 . r 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Points represent Calculated Load= Measured Concentration x Flow Data:pre-2005,Jassby 2008;2008-2016,Regional San -s,F. - {•." How will Regional San's upgrade influence downstream N concentrations? w , How will Delta and nSFE habitats respond to this large change? � S z- Present-Day Loads Post-Upgrade Loads A DIN (present-post) DINpresent DINPost-Upgrade A DIN Predicted Changes in ODIN and ONH4: pre- and post SacRegional upgrade Estimates for mid-August t bb k { r ,r ODIN (pM) ANH4 (pM) 0 15 20 0.1 1 10 [qualitative, draft] Suisun Modeling-Related Topics Seasonally-varying upstream sources Nutrients Important changes ahead y l Nutrient sources to Suisun Baspace, time) ? Transport, Cycling, Concentrations • important processes ? Summer: DIN 20-30 � • 'assimilative capacity' ? NH4 —70% Ecosystem responses, major factors... Phytoplankton production ? • Light • Nutrients Current Focus • Grazers Harmful Algae, Toxins ? Future scenarios: Nutrients and Responses Effects of management decisions ? Changes to underlying factors Key Collaborators 4 o f �........... «... , SFEI USGS-Menlo Park UC Santa Cruz R Holleman, L MacVean, J Cloern, L Lucas, C Martin, M McKibben, E Nuss, Z Sylvester, E Nejad, T Schraga R Kudela, M Peacock P Trowbridge, D Senn USGS-Sacramento M Downing-Kunz, D Schoellhamer ' B Downing, B Bergamaschi SCCWRP UC Berkeley M Sutula; M Beck M Stacey P de Valpine Nutrient Management Strategy November 2012 1. Nutrient sources movement transformations San Francisco Bay Nutrient > > Management Strategy 2. Condition Assessment - Protective vs. impacted condition San F-,Bay Regrvnal Water Qaokty CvnYrvl Bvard - Monitoring 3. Ecosystem response to nutrients - Develop best-possible understanding of dose: response - What are protective nutrient levels? (now, future) 4. Management actions to maintain nutrients at protective levels? — efficacious — cost-effective