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HomeMy WebLinkAbout03.Review draft Position Paper to authorize the General Manager to pre-purchase natural gas through a service agreement with Shell Energy North America, LP, for the period of January 1, 2019 through December 31, 2019 at a price not to exceed $4.25 per de 3■ Central San BOARD OF DIRECTORS 0 POSITION PAPER Board Meeting Date: May 18 2017 Subject: AUTHORIZE THE GENERAL MANAGER TO PRE-PURCHASE NATURAL GAS THROUGH A SERVICE AGREEMENT WITH SHELL ENERGY NORTH AMERICA, LP, FOR THE PERIOD OF JANUARY 1 , 20195 THROUGH DECEMBER 31, 20195 ATA PRICE NOT TO EXCEED $4.25 PER DECATHERM Submitted By: Initiating Dept./Div.: Clint T. Shima, P.E. Operations Department / Plant Senior Engineer Maintenance / Reliability Engineering REVIEWED AND RECOMMENDED FOR BOARD ACTION: N. Meyer, Plant Maintenance Division Manager A. Sasaki, Deputy General Manager Roger S. Bailey General Manager ISSUE: Board authorization is requested for the General Manager to pre-purchase natural gas (NG). BACKGROUND: This recommended action aligns with the Central San's Strategic Plan, specifically Goal No. 3, to be a fiscally sound and effective water utility; Strategy 1 to conduct long-range financial planning. Central San uses approximately 430,000 decatherms (dth) of NG annually (or roughly 17200 dth per day) for the Treatment Plant's Cogeneration System and as backup fuel to landfill gas in the multiple-hearth furnaces and auxiliary steam boilers. The Cogeneration System consumes approximately 80 percent of Central San's NG, and is operated to stay below the 25,000 metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gas threshold to avoid mandatory offsets. This is accomplished by monitoring fuel use and adjusting the input of Pacific Gas and Electric's imported electrical power. When NG prices stay below $10.00/dth, then continuing to generate power for the Treatment Plant is a cost benefit to Central San. Generally, Central San pre-purchases approximately 1 ,000 dth per day of NG. Each pre-purchase transaction typically is for one-third of the total amount or 333 dth per day. For 2017, staff has purchased 1,000 dth per day at an average Citygate price of $3.50/dth. The remaining 200 dth per day will be purchased at the end of the month at market price. In May 2016, the Board authorized the General Manager to pre-purchase NG through December 31, 2018, at a price not to exceed $4.50/dth. In the lasty ear, forward NG strip prices for 2018 remain in the $3.00 to $4.00/dth range. Market prices are favorable for purchasing due to above-average NG supplies. The five-year average of Page 1 of 2 POSITION ,PAPER Board Meeting Date: May 18 2017 Subject: AUTHORIZE THE GENERAL MANAGER TO PRE-PURCHASE NATURAL GAS THROUGH A SERVICE AGREEMENT WITH SHELL ENERGY NORTH AMERICA, LP, FOR THE PERIOD OF JANUARY 1, 20191 THROUGH DECEMBER 31 , 2019, ATA PRICE NOT TO EXCEED $4.25 PER DECATHERM two-year forward pricing was $4.14/dth; therefore, a not-to-exceed price of $4.25/dth is appropriate. If the spot market price of NG remains at or near $3.00/dth, Central San's average burner tip price for NG for Fiscal Year (FY) 2016-17 will be approximately $4.55/dth for a total expenditure, including the added cost of transportation ($1.15/dth) Of $1 ,955,500. The FY 2016-17 budget for NG is $2,000,000. Forward NG prices include a premium and are not as greatly affected by short-term price changes. Current pricing for one-year strips of NG for 2018 is approximately $3.40/dth. For calendar year 2018, Central San has pre-purchased one third of the normal pre-purchase amount at a price of $3.30/dth. NG prices tend to be lower during the shoulder seasons of spring and fall. Staff will continue to monitor the NG markets to make a purchase for the remaining portion of 2018. Pre-purchasing allows staff the flexibility to respond to market changes. Locking in a fixed price for NG can insure Central San against an upside cost; there is a market risk if prices go down, but staff believes the down side benefit is less than the upside risk. Accordingly, staff recommends Board authorization to allow the General Manager to pre-purchase NG for the period of January 1 , 2019 through December 31 , 2019 at a price not-to-exceed $4.25/dth. By authorizing gas purchases through 2019, Central San will be able to take advantage of future favorable pricing changes, thus stabilizing the energy budget for the next three years. The General Manager will keep the Board apprised of NG purchases. ALTERNATIVES/CONSIDERATIONS: Central San could purchase all NG at market price each month or other frequency, or Central San could pre-purchase just one year in advance. FINANCIAL IMPACTS: Purchasing NG each month at market price presents a risk of market price volatility and excessive Central San expenditures. Based on past experience, pre-purchasing NG can result in significant cost savings. COMMITTEE RECOMMENDATION: The Engineering and Operations Committee reviewed this position paper on May 9, 2017, and ... RECOMMENDED BOARD ACTION: Authorize the General Manager to pre-purchase NG through a service agreement with Shell Energy North America, LP, for the period of January 1, 2019 through December 31, 2019 at a price not to exceed $4.25/dth, which does not include transportation service costs. Page 2of2