HomeMy WebLinkAbout08.c. (Handout) Rate Scenarios . o _ 8-c.
(Handout)
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RAT SC NARIOS
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anew Gemmell PlannIngand D
DivIslon Manager
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■ 11 February
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FACTORS TO BALANCE IN SETTING
CENTRAL SAN RATES
• Fund necessary C1 work
• Review timing and scope of work
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• Curtail new debt entirely?
• Keep rate adjustments at a
• Or be responsible with use reasonable level/avoid spikes
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Recognize long-term nature of QIP spending.
Beneficiaries should pay; avoid lnter-generational inequities.
SC NARIOS R V1 W ON JANUARY 26 , 2017
71 1 1 AnnualRatal
is Yea-OP L ab it iry il--n ts I ota
10-Tear
Adcliti on a I I:nd ing
Re nsi o i, H ate anc
Sce nzi f o
I D Descript i on (millions) III)I i;)115,1 2017 18 2 018 19 2019-20 2112CQ1 21021-22 2022-2-3 2023-24 2024-25 2-025-26 2026-27 =i r cease
Pr io '-lear 2015-16 Sue nci r intiu��ud
Cost o"
-:j r Rate Setting(lu nc 2013.-
1 SM $28 $21 $21 S22 S23 $24, 5.
'".
Peren
cent irwrcase .5-57S 5-35.96 4-97% 3-5% 3.596 3.5% 1':
3.5% 3.5
pdale d J anuary Data lincl ud r•..g
J p d atc d Wages.Ret ire m P-nt&Mad'jical
B=i-z.-:l ir-L: Rales 28 $29 $28 - $21 $22 $23 $24 $211
rj,'Uq,!:
PC.CC -5-6096 5-40% 5-00% 3-55% 3.596 3.596 3-596 3.5% 3.'I3.5'1--
Updalcd cjti.',',E73 C'WIVIP,add
pcq�irjr-p�-jr--crl'L $95 $Ej 5134 $160 $35 $35 $38 $3n $40
C. 1 $873 :':--2-.5 1
PC. 3-
-'_C.jlcd Cdld'�M(-"WWP,a-d,d
pensior-i p-dynnents
Partial Debt Funding from
2.0 Novern hHer workshop�3 b-on ds) $38 $41 $44 $49 $40 $43 $45 $48 $51
PercEntoge lrwoease 7.6% 7-696 7 9 VI& 715% C3.096 6.096 IS.096 15-0% 15.096 152-0%
Debt 1--imi6p(MaliarIS) jlo $178 $294
1Updated data,5-073 CWWP.a--dd
pension payments.,rEdxc
seen d inn
1 Pa rtia I DE hit F u nding(4 bonds) $3 $38 $40 $43 $40 $42 $44, $47 $50 $53
Per centoge Increase 7. "f. 7-0% 7-0% 710% 6.0% 6.0%, 6.0%, E 0% 19.0' 152-0% 85.9,x..
Debt Issue I'm0liu.ns) $60 $-lw $125 $22.9 $5 L.,
Updated data,5,E73 CWNT,"-d
BLUE 1pension payments, I I
BACKUP Pidrr-idl Gnu tat Funding from
4 bond NoviEm bar w�Drkshop $36 538 541 5313 $41 $44 $47 $49 $52 $925
No 5.2, PC rC C r.,Gj,!:jnCf eg-Ng
. .L I61T.796 G-796 G-7% G-7% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% U.0% 19.0% 152-0 S 3.
Dc!b'L $60 $125 $228 .5.5 i 3
A,
NEw SCENARIOS - IVO DEBT WITH FIVE INCREMENTAL ASSUMPTIONS
Anrmjal Rate Increases I
3 4 5 6 7 a 9 1u
i0-'fu,:r
-m6n Rat&j n
Scu rw r 1 fj 10 YL-.jr'.1:1 Lijbi lij.-j Pni:,:. Tool
Dcncriptifin imill ion!,l I inil liuml 2017-19 2018-19 ZO-1920 ZOZG-2JL 2021-2Z 2022-2.3 ZD23,44 ZGZ4-25 20ZS-26 2026-27 %i ftre Ade
Jaited data,$8 f I tv.,Ni 1%3 dd
.3
;Payments S!ib .60
pens 1 1 1 $113 $13e $1 $3P $36 tm t39 $40 1,236
f1erL:6.-;,-:2gP-Mcreose I H.�%e 38.9% :r..S% -9.599 J-549 3-5% 33% 3.
L,t$6-72 million for Pump
b owe,seismic proem�incluc es
E-4 b 1-a Fu,J&al,early spent: 5D $110 $13U $712. $32 �133 $U $35 $36 $39
l ��
Percentoge i1ni:r-ease 18-4% 18-4119 18.4% 8.4% 3.5% .3.599 3-5% 3-5% 33% .3.5%
DRbt,lssue
L�-t$;--- e•6 ,,i A.a-fa,Pump&
b owe e'S=,&MIC p,ro,eCL
No$.2 5 million add.tional
oens on paiMents 'S83 $97 $114 $95 $31 $32 3.a $35 $36 $37 at 1A i
$870
P-erce n T:?g La;n i reis-e 16-6% 16,6% 11.1" 3.5% .3.5% 3-5% 3-5% 33% .3.5%
-h L_t�r—r 'n I,0 G'0-ump&
b ewer Seismic.
a No S2-5 m 11 on.
one-
Feb i time savings f rorr SE%%°er Const
Fund A $�a $108 11.11.2 531 $-i3 34 $35 S.{7 1021
P&Cefth:2 g19 0 11 C M-425--- 26-C% I&ON 16.0% 143% 1.5% A.5% .3-579 33% 1.5 1.5% 11-93%
Dela:Lis U e(M- iffio�jl
CLn 1 0 &
owe smic.
N 3$.2.!) by I on.
l-a: I-C a He Ni ove nil I on
*Add a nn--.a I�1.3 11 11 0 SYY ng s $97 ]LIZ $30 $a2 $1a $34 $35 m $1rU
Aercent-oge mcr-eose 14.7% 14.7% 14.7% 3.5% 3.51% 1.5% 3.5"116. Is 1%
Debt l u e(,-n i-Vo ri,)
*Cut$6-78 million for Pump
Lowe,Seismic.
1P No$2-5-ni Ilion.
Remove$a.3&9 million
Feb J-'-
Add a nnu a 1$3-3 mi 11 ion sa-v,ngs
Od CIP by 10%each year 1 $2a $29 $310 $31 $33
k-exemoge wre-os�e 3.5% 3.5% 15 IS 15-4s; 15% 3.5% go
LL-b t 0--%s u e(ni ffli-o n�jl I
Ekrause the se scer 2ras Ofect UALAL,;iddi-ioq; rzte'-np2c=rela-cc-o
perzion wDuld Elsa take plr.cc wl-icl-are nat rradelec riem
Prelimi nary
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QUESTIONS
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