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HomeMy WebLinkAbout05. HighMark Capital 4th Quarter ReportH IGHIV ARKS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT February 2, 2015 Thea Vassallo Finance Manager Central Contra Costa Sanitary District 5019 Imhoff Place Martinez, CA 94553 -4392 RE: 4Q 2014 Dear Thea, U.S. Economic and Market Overview The U.S. economy continued to represent perhaps the brightest opportunity across global markets in the fourth quarter of 2014 and for the full year. The continuing strength of the U.S. economy, as represented by two consecutive quarters of 4% or higher annualized GDP growth, provided investors around the world with sufficient reasons to add to their holdings of U.S. stocks, bonds, and dollars. As 2014 came to a close, a series of positive economic indicators, some at their highest levels in a decade, highlighted the domestic economy's slow but steady recovery from the Great Recession. These included: • Consumer Sentiment — Final December 2014 figure of 93.6 is highest since January 2007. • Consumer Spending Growth — Continued improvement with 0.6% growth in November. • Rising Average Earnings — Up 1.7% in 2014 and annualized wage growth of 5% predicted for 2015. • Non -Farm Payroll Growth — Averaged 206,000 jobs per month since the beginning of 2012 with total growth exceeding 7 million jobs. • Unemployment — 5.6% at year -end and lowest since June 2008. • Corporate Merger and Acquisition activity — 2014 had highest value of deals in 7 years. • U.S. Doliar — Continued strength in 2014 against the world's major currencies. Given the welcome news from the U.S., one might think that domestic Treasury rates would be higher, but economic issues around the world continued 2014's flight to quality U.S. debt, pushing rates even lower during the 0 quarter. These issues include potential deflation in Europe, China's transition from a country of manufacturers to one of consumers, and Japan's seemingly endless effort to restore economic growth. By year- end, the gap between domestic and international developed economies was perhaps best expressed by the spread between 10 -year U.S. Treasuries and the equivalent German government bond of 1.6 %, a difference which stood at its highest level in the last 25 years and spotlights investors' global growth concerns about global growth. The latter half of 2014 saw two significant transitions in the U.S. economy. The first transition involved the price of oil, which peaked in June and declined about 50% from there, finishing the year at a level below $551barrel. There is some debate in the investment community as to whether the price declines are related to increased supply, namely through North American shale production, or decreased demand principally due to international slowdowns primarily in Europe and China. While some sectors of the economy may struggle with a lower price of oil, historically, a decline in oil prices has been regarded as a positive. Consumer spending is a significant component of growth, especially in the U.S., and lower -to- middle income consumers can be expected to benefit as they will have more disposable income to support spending patterns. One caveat, however, is a slide in oil prices could prove to be indicative of a larger global slowdown could act as a headwind for future equity returns. The second transition involved the U.S. Dollar which began a strong rise that coincided with the decline in oil prices. The combination of strong GDP growth in the second and third quarters, and the growing consensus that the Fed will not engage in additional quantitative easing measures, supported the rise in the dollar, Additionally, the dollar has strengthened due to many other regions showing weakness: the Eurozone is likely to initiate their own quantitative easing program to assist in their recovery, Russia is in a recession, Brazil is potentially headed to a recession, China's growth rate is likely slowing, and Japan's quantitative easing measures have weakened the Yen. Performance Review The Central Contra Costa Sanitary District PRHCP Plan returned 1.61%, gross of investment management fees for the quarter. The Plan's fixed income investments posted a 0.911'% return, which lagged the Barclays Aggregate return of 1.79 %. The longer end of the yield curve saw yields tighten in the quarter, while high yield credit spreads widened. The sell -off in the high yield market was strongly influenced by the decline in oil prices, as roughly 20% of the high yield index is related to oil related companies. The Plan's fixed income allocation had an overweight to shorter duration investments throughout the quarter. This tilt was established to mitigate the impact of rising interest rates. Rates however did not increase, and this was a primary detractor to performance. Additionally, both of the managers in the intermediate -term bond space also had a duration positioning that was less than the primary benchmark — which detracted from performance. The equity segment of the portfolio returned 2.36% in the fourth quarter. International equity investments detracted from performance during the quarter, with emerging markets returning -4.5% (MSCl -EM Index) and developed markets also declining -3.57% (MSCI -SAFE Index) in the quarter. The combination of the steep decline in commodity prices and weakening foreign currencies exacerbated the difficulty that faced most emerging markets. Developed international markets were also negatively impacted by currency trends as well as the uncertainties surrounding the European and Japanese recoveries. Mid -cap equities slightly outperformed their benchmark in the quarter, while small cap and large cap stocks fell short of benchmark targets. Active managers continued to struggle during the 4`" quarter, which contributed to large - cap mutual fund managers posting their worst relative performance in several decades. This was seen across a wide spectrum of styles and sizes due to several reasons. First, r the dispersion of returns has been lacking: when stocks' returns don't vary by much, it is very difficult to add much value by choosing the best ones. Higher dispersion typically goes hand -in -hand with higher volatility which is something that, despite the many macro events that dominated headlines this year, did not really surface for equities. Secondly, there was a fairly unusual negative effect exhibited in the size premium: smaller companies significantly underperformed larger companies by the most in 15 years and small companies tend to be areas of the market where active managers can gain an advantage. A third factor consisted of large cap domestic managers holding foreign equities in their portfolios. Foreign markets trailed by over 18 %, vs. the S &P500 in calendar year 2014. Finally, active equity managers entered 2014, and the 4°i quarter, bracing for interest rates to increase: instead rates have decreased and have made expensive areas of the market, namely utilities and REITs, even more expensive, and therefore risky. We suspect that this painful run of active manager underperformance may be nearing the end, as volatility has recently begun to increase due to oil price effects on earnings, which should add to stock dispersion, small caps relatively outperforming in the 4it' quarter resulting in a shrinking of the relative return gap, and interest rates are unlikely to go much lower from here with the consensus view that the Fed is poised to increase rates. Strategy Positioning The Plan's allocation to equities is currently "neutral" with a targeted 50% allocation. Within this allocation the portfolio continues to have an overweight to international equities given the relatively more attractive valuations compared to domestic equities. During the quarter, the underweight allocation to small caps was eliminated and small caps now have a neutral allocation. This transition was made based on valuations becoming slightly more attractive relative to where they were at the beginning of the year and the significant performance gap compared to large caps. The Plan remains slightly underweight in fixed income, maintaining a target allocation of 47.5% of assets. The cash allocation currently is targeted at 2.5 %. Best regards, Rndrew Brown Central Contra Costa sanitary District Fourth Quarter 2014 Presented by Andrew Brown, CFA �HIGHMARKO CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CCCSD Asset Allocation Total Assets: $37,467,222 Period Ending 12 -31 -14 4Q14 Return: 1.61% 1 Year Return: 4.70% Inception -to -Date Return: 11.95% Inception Date. 4 -1 -2009 Fixed Income 817,739,069 47.3% 'investment Summary Since Inception Beginning Value $ 566,683.26 Contributions 27,073,510.86 Withdrawals -250,020.07 Gain (Loss) 4,889,234.83 Interest and Dividends 5,187,835.31 Net Accrued Income 44,484.87 Ending Market Value $ 37,511,729.06 Cash $921,022 ? 9% Equity $18,807,131 50.2% 'Ending Market Value differs from total market value on the previous page due to differences in reporting methodology. The above ending market value is reported as of trade date and includes accruals. The Asset Allocation total market value is reported as of settlement date. H IGHMARKO CAPITAL MANAGEMENT PARS: Central Contra Costa Sanitary District - J Selected Period Performance PARS /CENTRAL CONTRA COSTA SANT PRHCP Account 6746030600 Period Ending: 12/31/2014 Account Inception: 4/1/2009 Returns are gross -of -fees unless otherwise noted. Returns for periods over one year are annualized. The information presented has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Securities are not FDIC insured, have no bank guarantee, and may lose value. HIGHMARK® PARS: Central Contra Costa Sanitary District CAPITAL MANAGEMENT Year Inception to Date to Date Sector 3 Months (1 Year) 2 Years 3 Years 5 Years (69 Months) Cash Equivalents .00 .02 .02 .02 .04 .11 iMoneyNet, Inc. Taxable 00 .01 .02 .02 02 .03 Total Fixed Income .91 4.04 1.62 3.62 4.60 5.86 BC US Aggregate Bd Index 1.79 5.97 1.89 2.66 4.45 4.88 Total Equities 2.36 5.65 17.81 17.53 12.53 18.30 Large Cap Funds 4.03 10.13 22.02 20.43 13.75 18.91 S &P 500 Composite Index 4.93 13.69 22.68 20.41 15.45 20.45 Mid Cap Funds 6.16 7.99 19.02 17.23 Russell Midcap Index 5.94 13.22 23.52 21.40 17.19 23.79 Small Cap Funds 6.85 5.79 23.39 20.58 17.85 23.78 Russell 2000 Index 9.73 4.89 20.67 19.21 15.55 21.61 International Equities -3.68 -3.29 3.04 7.83 3.77 12.12 MSCI SAFE Index -3.57 -4.90 8.05 11.06 5.33 12.67 MSCI EM Free Index -4.50 -2.19 -2.39 4.04 1.78 1213 Total Managed Portfolio 1.61 4.70 9.12 10.26 8.55 11.95 Account Inception: 4/1/2009 Returns are gross -of -fees unless otherwise noted. Returns for periods over one year are annualized. The information presented has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Securities are not FDIC insured, have no bank guarantee, and may lose value. HIGHMARK® PARS: Central Contra Costa Sanitary District CAPITAL MANAGEMENT ASSET ALLOCATION As of December 31, 2014 Equity 50.20% Range: 40 %n 60% 18,807,131 Large Cap Core 5.75% SMGIX Columbia Contrarian Core CI Z 2,153,746 4.74% SICWX Sentinel Common Stock 1 1,777,635 Large Cap Value 2.90% DODGX Dodge & Cox Stock Fund 1,087,762 4.84% LSGIX Loomis Sayles Value Fund 1,813,997 Large Cap Growth 3.60% HACAX Harbor Capital Appreciation Instl 1,349,135 3.62% PRGFX T. Rowe Price Growth Stock Fund 1,354,681 Mid Cap Value 2.10% TIMVX TIAA -CREF Mid -Cap Value Instl 786,051 Mid Cap Growth 2.09% IYMIX Ivy Mid Cap Growth Fund 1 782,129 Small Cap Value 3.83% NSVAX Columbia Small Cap Value Fund II 1,434,568 Small Cap Growth 3.78% PRNHX T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund 1,417,586 International Core 3.27% NWHNX Nationwide Bailard Intl Equities Fund 1,223,776 International Value 2.02% DODFX Dodge & Cox International Stock Fund 757,204 International Growth 1.98% MQGIX MFS International Growth Fund 743,590 Tactical - Europe 2.15% FEZ SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF 806,423 Emerging Markets 3.52% SEMNX Schroder Emerging Market Equity 1,318,847 Fixed Income 47.35% Range: 40 9lo-60% 17,739,069 Short -Term 11.87% VFSUX Vanguard Short-Term Corp Adm Fund 4,445,508 Intermediate -Term 16.55% NWJJX Nationwide HighMark Bond Fund 6,201,132 16.53% PTTRX PIMCO Total Return Instl Fund 6,193,641 High Yield 2.40% PHIYX PIMCO High Yield Instl 898,788 Cash 2.46% Range: 0 %20% 921,022 2.46% FPZXX Money Market 921,022 JHIGHMARKV CAPITAL MANAGEMENT TOTAL 100.00% $37,467,222 PARS: Central Contra Costa Sanitary District * f a CENTRAL CONTRA COSTA SANITARY DISTRICT For Period Ending December 31, 2014 Data Source: Morningstar, SD Investments Returns less than one year are not annualized. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. The information presented has been obtained from sources believed accurate and reliable. Securities are not FDIC insured, have no bank guarantee and may lose value. HIGHMI RK® CAPITAL MANAGEMENT PARS: Central Contra Costa Sanitary District 3 -Month YTD 1 -Year 3 -Year 5 -Year Fund Name Inception Return Rank Return Rank Return Rank Return Rank Return Rank Sentinel Common Stock I (7/13) 4.09 58 10.62 63 10.62 63 18.54 63 14.27 45 Columbia Contrarian Core Z (7113) 4.69 44 12.92 31 12.92 31 22.07 10 15.93 10 Dodge & Cox Stock (8114) 2.21 78 10.40 54 10.40 54 23.71 1 15.56 9 Harbor Capital Appreciation Instl 3.26 77 9.93 53 9.93 53 20.52 31 14.48 42 Loomis Sayles Value Fund (7/11) 3.82 55 10.76 48 10.76 48 21.58 8 14.35 28 T. Rowe Price Growth Stock 4.30 56 8.83 65 8.83 65 21.68 15 15.84 17 Idx: Russell 1000 4.88 -- 13.24 -- 13.24 - 20.62 -- 15.64 EQUITY FUNDS TIAA -CREF Mid -Cap Value Instl 5.96 33 12.85 19 12.85 19 20.37 46 15.64 39 idx: Russell Mid Cap Value 6.05 -- 14.75 -- 14.75 -- 21.98 -- 17.43 - Ivy Mid Cap Growth 1 (5114) 6.36 29 8.20 38 8.20 38 16.89 67 15.73 33 Idx: Russell Mid Cap Growth 5.84 -- 11.90 - 11.90 - 20.71 -- 16.94 EQUITY FUNDS Columbia Small Cap Value 11 6.76 54 4.61 42 4.61 42 18.87 35 15.55 20 Idx: Russell 2000 Value 9.40 - 4.22 - 4.22 -- 18.29 -- 14.26 - T. Rowe Price New Horizons 6.98 69 6.10 19 6.10 19 22.50 6 21.43 1 Idx: Russell 2000 Growth 10.06 - 5.60 -- 5.60 -- 20.14 -- 16.80 - INTERNATIONAL P Dodge & Cox Intemational Stock -4.66 86 0.08 9 0.08 9 15.23 4 7.89 7 Nationwide Bailard Inti Eqs InSvc -1.10 16 -1.94 15 -1.94 15 12.98 12 6.37 18 MFS International Growth 1 -2.17 69 -5.10 58 -5.10 58 8.95 77 5.90 53 Idx: MSCI SAFE -3.57 - -4.90 -- -4.90 -- 11.06 -- 5.33 Schroder Emerging Market Equity (11112) -4.54 50 -4.61 70 -4.61 70 4.30 50 1.41 56 Idx: MSCI Emerging Markets -4.50 -- -2.19 - -2.19 -- 4.04 - 1.78 SPDR EURO STOXX50 ETF (6114) -2.06 88 0.77 73 0.77 73 6.57 56 7.76 100 Pimco Total Return Insrl 1.32 45 4.69 71 4.69 71 4.26 22 5.14 37 Vanguard Short-Term Investment -Grade Adm 0.22 23 1.86 15 1.86 15 2.51 18 2.97 23 Nationwide HighMark Bond InSvc 1.16 57 5.00 64 5.00 64 3.48 44 4.93 45 BarCap US Aggregate Bond 1.79 -- 5.97 -- 5.97 -- 2.66 -- 4.45 - PIMCO High Yield Instl (11/14) 0.42 10 3.31 13 3.31 13 7.77 41 8.26 35 Credit Suisse HY -1.59 1.86 -- 1.86 -- 7.91 -- 8.68 - Data Source: Morningstar, SD Investments Returns less than one year are not annualized. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. The information presented has been obtained from sources believed accurate and reliable. Securities are not FDIC insured, have no bank guarantee and may lose value. HIGHMI RK® CAPITAL MANAGEMENT PARS: Central Contra Costa Sanitary District